Mondrian's Blog

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 2:55 at Downpatrick - De Plotting Shed. It's carrying too much weight for the ground. It will be there or thereabouts but may well fade late on in the race. Lay it if the odds are less than 15/8.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

And just as I thought, De Plotting Shed gets sent off the 5/4 favourite and fades towards the end and comes in second. Another winning bet for us.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 26
Number of No Bets: 16

Winning Bets: 8
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 80.0%

Profit/Loss: +£1.41

Return on Investment: +15.40%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 26

Winning Bets: 20
Losing Bets: 6

Strike Rate: 76.92%

Profit/Loss: +£0.10

Return on Investment: +0.4%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 0.4%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 15.40%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection, Benny's Secret, runs in the 2:00 race at Kelso. This horse has very poor recent form and ought not to win. If the odds are less than 9/4, lay the horse to lose.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection, Benny's Secret, runs in the 2:00 race at Kelso. This horse has very poor recent form and ought not to win. If the odds are less than 9/4, lay the horse to lose.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

My apologies. I had a bad night and am shattered. I posted originally, that our selection was running at Taunton and that the odds should be less than or equal to 9/4. Of course, the horse was running at Kelso and that the odds had to be less than 9/4, as I have every other time I've posted - unless I've slipped up again. Of course, some people wil;l believe that this is a cheat. I can assure you that it isn't. I have no need to cheat.

Anyway, the horse was sent off the 9/4 favourite and won. It just shows the power of betting value.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 27
Number of No Bets: 17

Winning Bets: 8
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 80.0%

Profit/Loss: +£1.41

Return on Investment: +15.40%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 27

Winning Bets: 20
Losing Bets: 7

Strike Rate: 74.07%

Profit/Loss: -£0.90

Return on Investment: -3.6%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of 3.6%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 15.40%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Once again, there are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Once again, there are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Once again, there are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Once again, there are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

At last - a selection. It runs in the 4:15 at Fairyhouse. If the odds of Outlander are < 13/8, lay the horse to lose. Otherwise, ignore it.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

Laters malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

At last - a selection. It runs in the 4:15 at Fairyhouse. If the odds of Outlander are < 13/8, lay the horse to lose. Otherwise, ignore it.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

Laters malchicks.

And Outlander gets sent off the evens favourite and comes second so we win.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 28
Number of No Bets: 17

Winning Bets: 9
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 81.82%

Profit/Loss: +£2.28

Return on Investment: +20.71%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 28

Winning Bets: 21
Losing Bets: 7

Strike Rate: 75.00%

Profit/Loss: -£0.03

Return on Investment: -0.01%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of 0.01%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 20.71%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 1:20 at Market Rasen - Walkami. It's carrying too much weight for the ground. It will be there or thereabouts but may well fade late on in the race. Lay it if the odds are less than or equal to 3/1.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 1:20 at Market Rasen - Walkami. It's carrying too much weight for the ground. It will be there or thereabouts but may well fade late on in the race. Lay it if the odds are less than or equal to 3/1.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

And Walkami gets sent off the 100/30 second favourite and comes second so we win. Unfortunately, it's a no bet because the odds were above 3/1.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 29
Number of No Bets: 18

Winning Bets: 9
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 81.82%

Profit/Loss: +£2.28

Return on Investment: +20.71%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 29

Winning Bets: 22
Losing Bets: 7

Strike Rate: 75.86%

Profit/Loss: +£0.21

Return on Investment: +0.74%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 0.74%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 20.71%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are two selections today. The first runs in the 2:20 at Southwell - Edlomond. If the odds close to the off are less that 11/4, then, lay the horse to lose. The second runs in the 3:40 at Hexam - Dubai Devils. If the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 3/1, then lay the horse to lose.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

There are two selections today. The first runs in the 2:20 at Southwell - Edlomond. If the odds close to the off are less that 11/4, then, lay the horse to lose. The second runs in the 3:40 at Hexam - Dubai Devils. If the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 3/1, then lay the horse to lose.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

And Edlomond gets sent off at 9/4 favourite and therefore it was a bet. Unfortunately, the horse won. Pity.

Dubai Devils was sent off at 7/2 and was a no bet because the odds were too high. Unfortunately, the horse didn't even place.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 31
Number of No Bets: 19

Winning Bets: 9
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 75.00%

Profit/Loss: +£1.28

Return on Investment: +10.67%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 31

Winning Bets: 23
Losing Bets: 8

Strike Rate: 74.19%

Profit/Loss: -£0.55

Return on Investment: -1.76%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of 1.76%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 10.69%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selections run in the 2:00 race at Exeter. They are Romeo is bleeding and Apache outlaw. If the odds of either of these two horses falls to less than 11/4 just before the off, then lay them to lose. If both fall to < 11/4, lay both horses to lose. Otherwise, leave them alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.