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PostPosted: Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:05 pm 
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I have no idea whether the mods will be all over me like a rash for this one but here goes:

What is a gambler?

It is someone who bets on an outcome without understanding the risks involved. Not only don't gamblers understand risk, they aren't able to calculate it and, even if they could, they ignore it anyway and place bets regardless.

Gamblers don't understand that in order to make a long-term profit from their exploits, they need to obtain VALUE. Value occurs when the odds offered by a bookmaker differ from the actual chances of the outcome occurring. If the odds offered by the bookmaker are greater than they ought to be, then the outcome should be backed. If the odds are less than they ought to be, then the outcome should be layed not to occur. Using this strategy, not every bet will win. However, you will win often enough to make a long-term profit.

The sum of the odds on every possible outcome of an event are set such that the bookmaker will win over the long term. This is because each set of odds is 'over-round'. In other words, less than they ought to be. The over-round on, for example, a horse race here in the UK is about 10%. This means that, on average, a bookmaker will make about 10% of all the stakes that he takes on a race in profit. This profit will come from the gamblers that lost.

This also means that, long-term, those who gamble on horses will lose. This is because the odds are stacked against them in the form of the over-round.

Although, in overall terms, the dice are loaded against the gambler, the dice are loaded in favour of someone who knows what he's doing. The reason is that, at the race level, the dice are loaded in the bookie's favour. At the individual horse's level, the odds may be incorrect and, provided this can be detected, financial advantage can be taken.

For the past 16 years, I have been extracting and analysing horse racing data and have discovered a method which can be used to identify when a horse's odds are incorrect and which financial advantage can be taken of. I can assure you that a gambler I'm not. Yes, I do take risks BUT, I know what those risks are and only bet when the odds are in my favour - regardless of how much I believe that the horse will win.

Why are the odds of certain horses incorrect?

The odds of a horse are determined by the information that is known about it such as its past form, its pedigree, the trainer, the jockey, the state of the ground and the type of track etc. However, not all information about the horse makes it into the public domain. For example, if a jockey is 'persuaded' to 'go easy' on a horse, then it is likely that this information will only be known to a select few. In this case, the horse will not win and, given that the betting public will largely be unaware, the odds will be much lower than they ought to be. Therefore, in this case, the correct strategy is to lay the horse to lose on a betting exchange because the odds have negative value.

Although it is illegal for a jockey to go easy on a horse, it does happen and jockeys have been censured for such. The reverse also happens in that horses are illegally given 'go faster juice' as was the case with Encke in the 2012 running of the St Ledger. I'll not say any more on this subject for obvious reasons. In these situations, a full complement of information does not reside in the public domain which, in turn, causes the odds on certain horses to be incorrect.

Tomorrow, I will attempt to identify horses whose odds may not be entirely accurate at the off and I'll post them on this site together with instructions as to how they may be exploited.

To ensure that there's no cheating on my part, I will ensure that the selections are posted well in advance of the races in which the horses run. This web site date/time stamps posts so I will not be able to cheat, even if I wanted to.

I have no wish to make anyone into a gambler. You are therefore advised to observe rather than partake.

See you in the morning.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2016 6:56 am 
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Today’s selection, Razin’ Hell, runs in the 2:30 at Southwell. It’s top rated in this race, along with Colourbearer. It’s a course and distance winner and is respected. The forecast odds of Razin’Hell were 8/1 and yet, the odds have already fallen to less than half of that. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less, I reckon there will be tremendous value in laying it to lose, especially as the trainer and jockey leave much to be desired. If the odds, close to the off, are greater than 3/1, I’d pass, not bet and await a better opportunity.

Today’s selection: Razin’ Hell - 2:30 Southwell LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS <= 3/1.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:04 am 
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Mondrian wrote:
Today’s selection, Razin’ Hell, runs in the 2:30 at Southwell. It’s top rated in this race, along with Colourbearer. It’s a course and distance winner and is respected. The forecast odds of Razin’Hell were 8/1 and yet, the odds have already fallen to less than half of that. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less, I reckon there will be tremendous value in laying it to lose, especially as the trainer and jockey leave much to be desired. If the odds, close to the off, are greater than 3/1, I’d pass, not bet and await a better opportunity.

Today’s selection: Razin’ Hell - 2:30 Southwell LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS <= 3/1.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.


Well, well, well.

I said that Raizin' Hell should only be layed to lose if it's odds were <= 3/1. 3/1 were value odds for the lay.

10 mins. before the off, the odds began moving down but only got as low as 100/30 - so not low enough for the lay. Then the drift began and it slowly moved out to 5/1. At these odds, the lay had no value so the bet was not made and the horse ignored. Just as well really as the horse won a shade easily by 2.5 lengths. So, even though the horse drifted, which indicated that it was going to lose, it won easily. Mmmh, he muttered to himself.

Anyway, it saved us some money.

I'll try again on the morrow.

Smiles.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:38 am 
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Today’s selection, Finea, runs in the 4:00 at Down Royal. It’s the lowest rated horse in the race and is almost top weight. The ground is heavy and, although it’s only a 2 mile race, this horse will not find the weight easy to carry. None of the seven protagonists have won of late. It could be a muddling race with a mid-priced winner. The forecast odds of Finea are 5/2. I think that there’s value in them there odds. If the odds fall or stay the same, I would lay the horse to lose. If they increase beyond 5/2, I’d pass, not bet and await a better opportunity.

Today’s selection: Finea - 4:00 Down Royal LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS <= 5/2.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:44 am 
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"Rambling" has been taken very literally here.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:36 am 
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bob_32_116 wrote:
"Rambling" has been taken very literally here.


Won't be saying that when you are a millionaire from my tips. :D

This time next year Rodders ..... (does this translate?)

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Last edited by Mondrian on Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:40 am 
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bob_32_116 wrote:
"Rambling" has been taken very literally here.


Would you prefer this message board died a death?

It may well do if the likes of you and I don't keep it alive. Afaik, apart from you, me and a mod called Grant, there may not be anyone else reading my 'ramblings'. I think the others may have left these hallowed halls long ago.

Me, I'd like it to keep living if it's all the same to you.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:13 pm 
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Mondrian wrote:
Today’s selection, Finea, runs in the 4:00 at Down Royal. It’s the lowest rated horse in the race and is almost top weight. The ground is heavy and, although it’s only a 2 mile race, this horse will not find the weight easy to carry. None of the seven protagonists have won of late. It could be a muddling race with a mid-priced winner. The forecast odds of Finea are 5/2. I think that there’s value in them there odds. If the odds fall or stay the same, I would lay the horse to lose. If they increase beyond 5/2, I’d pass, not bet and await a better opportunity.

Today’s selection: Finea - 4:00 Down Royal LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS <= 5/2.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.


Well, Finea was sent off the 5/2 favourite so it was a lay bet for us. In the final straight, 4 horses fought it out and, sadly, our selection prevailed and won by 1.5 lengths.

Let's hope for better luck tomorrow.

Smiles.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:49 pm 
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Mondrian wrote:
bob_32_116 wrote:
"Rambling" has been taken very literally here.


Won't be saying that when you are a millionaire from my tips. :D

This time next year Rodders ..... (does this translate?)

Well, if I don't make many posts in this thread it's not because I don't appreciate your contributions - it's because I have very little knowledge of horse racing and less interest - and I don't know what half the terms mean that you are using :D

The Lind album "Since There Were Circles" contains at least two songs that are relevant here: "Love Came Riding", and, more to the point, "Loser". ;)


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:56 am 
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bob_32_116 wrote:
Mondrian wrote:
bob_32_116 wrote:
"Rambling" has been taken very literally here.


Won't be saying that when you are a millionaire from my tips. :D

This time next year Rodders ..... (does this translate?)

Well, if I don't make many posts in this thread it's not because I don't appreciate your contributions - it's because I have very little knowledge of horse racing and less interest - and I don't know what half the terms mean that you are using :D

The Lind album "Since There Were Circles" contains at least two songs that are relevant here: "Love Came Riding", and, more to the point, "Loser". ;)


I'd like to see this board become popular again. Bob deserves it.

So far, I've posted about the 60s, what I laughingly refer to as poetry, Howard Goodall and his music and now horse racing. If I have to write some science posts and posts discussing the non-existence of God, I'll do that too. Anything that will liven up this forsaken part of the galaxy will not be wasted.

Actually, my horse racing tips will do the business long-term and will allow a few shekels to be made which can be spent on purchasing more of Bob's music. If there's anything that people don't understand, I'm happy to discuss/explain it.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:19 am 
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The definition of "horse sense": that inestimable quality in a horse that stops it from betting on a man.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:28 am 
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bob_32_116 wrote:
The definition of "horse sense": that inestimable quality in a horse that stops it from betting on a man.


I've just wet myself laughing at that.

I blame you. :oops:

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:41 am 
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Today’s selection, L'Inganno Felice, runs in the 2:50 at Southwell. It’s top-rated and bottom-weighted and should roar home. The odds have already crashed from the forecast odds of 9/2 to 15/8 favourite. But - look at its form. The best that it has managed in its last 5 races is 5th. It doesn't look like this horse knows how to win. On that basis, 15/8 is far too low. Provided that the odds remain at or below 3/1, lay this horse to lose.

Today’s selection: L'Iganno Felice - 2:50 Southwell LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS <= 3/1.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:53 am 
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If we stop seeing posts from Mondrian, we can assume that it's because he lost everything on the horses and had to sell his PC and modem to pay off his debts.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:18 am 
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Mondrian wrote:
Today’s selection, L'Inganno Felice, runs in the 2:50 at Southwell. It’s top-rated and bottom-weighted and should roar home. The odds have already crashed from the forecast odds of 9/2 to 15/8 favourite. But - look at its form. The best that it has managed in its last 5 races is 5th. It doesn't look like this horse knows how to win. On that basis, 15/8 is far too low. Provided that the odds remain at or below 3/1, lay this horse to lose.

Today’s selection: L'Iganno Felice - 2:50 Southwell LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS <= 3/1.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.


And Mondrian doesn't have to sell his PC and modem because his horse lost - just as it should have - and Mondrian collected his winnings.

L'Iganno Felice was sent off the 15/8 favourite. Mondrain said that it wouldn't win because it didn't know how to, given that the best it's done in its last 5 races was 5th. and so it came to pass. Our horse looked a winner all the way until Blades Lad nicked the race by a neck.

Here's the story so far:

Number of Tips: 3
Number of No Bets: 1 :(

Winning Bets: 1 :D
Losing Bets: 1 :(

Strike Rate: 50% :(

Profit/Loss: -£0.54 :(

Return on Investment: -27% :cry:

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

It's early days yet so no need to panic.

See you in the morning.

Smiles.

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